You’ve done your 37 hours of research. You’ve watched every ESPN expert’s pick and every basketball columnist’s tips. You’ve consulted the local psychic and worked out complex math formulas which you put into a computer that generates sporting results. Well guess what? You’re still wrong. You’re wrong because the computer told you that the winner will be Florida, and there’s absolutely, definitely, incontrovertibly no way that the Florida Gators will repeat as National Champions (more on why later).
Fear not though, the Punchline is here to give you the advice you’ve been lacking. By following the guidelines I illustrate, you’ll be ensured of winning your NCAA pool and thus having bragging rights for an entire year. Be warned though: while my methods of filling out a perfect bracket are dead-on accurate, there is always an unknown percent chance that things could go wrong due to unforeseen circumstances, such as injuries or miraculous buzzer beaters or players calling timeouts when their teams don’t have any.
16th Seeds: No #1 seed has ever lost to a 16th seed so be sure not to pick Jackson State, Niagara, Eastern Kentucky, or Central Connecticut State to win any games. However it may be hard to pick Kansas too, because even though they are not a #16 seed, they have the spirit of one based on their recent NCAA performances.
12-5 Upset Specials: Just about every year, a 12th seed will topple a 5th seed. The trick is to figure which 12th seed will do the honors. I recommend picking every 12th seed so as to give yourself a 100% chance to get 1 or 2 out of 4 games correctly.
Gigantic Upset Specials: Every year, one huge upset shocks the college basketball world involving a 13th seed or lower. I see Texas A&M Corpus Christi as that team this year because Texas A&M is a really good team, and the Islanders are basically Texas A&M except with extra words attached at the end. Some of you may argue that this is not a good way to predict upsets, but then you would be suggesting that there is actually a way to predict upsets.
Duke: As you probably know, Duke basketball is an evil program bent on destroying everything good in the world. Always pick against them unless you want other people to think you are a soulless maniac who likes to eat babies.
#1 Seeds: At least one top seed makes it to the final four every year, but never have all 4 top seeds made it to the final four in the same year. Therefore, be sure to cross out at least one top seed from making it to Atlanta. I’m not going to make any suggestions, but let’s just say that Ohio State plays in the Big 10. Again, I’m not suggesting which No.1 seed is weak. All I’m suggesting is to remember that Ohio State played in a weak conference and, in its two biggest non-conference games of the season, got crushed by UNC and Florida. But I have no idea which top seed could be ripe for the picking.
Nicknames: Early in the tournament, teams with cool nicknames like Salukis, Crusaders, or Zags have a lot of success. But after the Sweet Sixteen, teams with lame nicknames like Wildcats, Ducks, and Hoyas will triumph. This is a rule of thumb I have learned from years of watching the NCAA tournament and always works, unless you have no taste in school nicknames and think that Boilmakers and Fighting Irish are awesome names. Please!
Coaching: Coaching is what turns a mediocre team into a good team and a good team into a great team. For example, Texas Tech would merely be a mediocre team if it weren’t for Bob Knight’s ability to slap some sense into his players, literally. And North Carolina would only be a good team, not great team, despite all their talent without Roy Williams’s animated gestures on the sidelines to let his players know when they can daydream about the NBA and when they should actually play basketball. Then there’s Tubby Smith: he’s a one-of-a-kind coach who motivates his players to play as hard as possible every March by never letting them know for sure if he’s coming back next season.
Small Schools: Mid-majors will make their presence known in the tournament, but my friend Zach Parris wanted to know how low majors will do. Unfortunately low majors, high minors, mid-minors, and low minors will be unable to make any noise due to be vastly underrepresented for the umpteenth straight year. Come to think of it, they don’t have any representation every year. Somebody should try to stick up for them and call the NCAA out for snubbing those poor schools. I would do it, but I’ll be too busy watching the tournament.
Teams that will go far:
Midwest
Maryland—The NCAA Tournament is all about who’s hot at the right time. The Terrapins are red-hot right now because any ACC team that loses to Miami has to be red-hot in embarrassment.
UNLV—The Running Rebels will have early success because their nickname is cool but will also have late success because their nickname is lame too. It’s cool because Running Rebels is a unique name but lame because if you’re a rebel, then you should be fighting instead of running.
Wisconsin—Fatigue is an important factor late in games. The Badger’s style of play is so boring, it will likely cause their opponents to fall asleep.
West
Kansas—Because they’ll be playing a 16th seed, the Jayhawks will definitely get out of the first round this season, and for them, getting out of the first round must be considered a deep run in the tournament.
Pittsburgh—Some teams may be able to lay the wood on their opponents, but only Pitt can lay the steel on their opponents. Everyone knows steel is tougher than wood.
Gonzaga—This year’s Zags team had to fight harder for their tournament berth and, as a result, is more battle-tested. Plus, they got rid of the only crybaby on their team last year.
East
North Carolina—The Tarheels will be prepared to stay in for the long haul and soak in as much tournament experience as possible to prepare themselves for life in the NBA next year.
Texas—Don’t be surprised if Kevin Durant seems a bit distracted during the UNC-Texas game; he’ll be busy juggling playing time and swapping draft notes with UNC players.
South
Ohio State—See Wisconsin
Albany—Long overshadowed by those loudmouths in New York City, Albany is going to show the world who’s really the capital of New York
Texas A&M—The Aggies plan on transplanting their 12th Man tradition in football to basketball. I don’t care who has the most talent; twelve players will always have a huge advantage against five players.
Teams that will not make it far:
Midwest
Florida: Last year, Crocodile Hunter Steve Irwin wrestled the Gator mascot in an ESPN commercial. A few months later Irwin died. Coincidence? I think not. Fans will not be so forgiving of the Florida Gators and will boo them off the floor for their hand in Irwin’s tragic demise.
Notre Dame: All the players will be too distracted by Brady Quinn’s draft stock issues.
West
Holy Cross—Unfortunately for the Crusaders, they have a history of taking over a building but then losing it later.
Wright State—I looked on a map of the United States and couldn’t find a state named Wright anywhere. Wright State is pretending to be something they’re not and pretenders never get far in tournaments.
East
USC—The Trojans could face Texas in the second round, and we all know what happened the last time USC and Texas played.
Boston College—Early in the season, the B.C. dismissed their leading shot blocker for the season due to drug issues. This noble act of doing what’s right proves the Eagles aren’t serious about their athletics. Teams that don’t take sports seriously enough don’t do well in the postseason.
South
Tennessee—Trying to figure out which Tennessee coach will do something crazy next will prove too great a distraction for the players.
Louisville and Stanford—Both these teams will be completely confused about which team they’re actually playing for since they both have the same mascots although this issue could possibly be solved by watching game tapes of the Kentucky-Villanova west regional first round game.