Are You Ready for Some… Heisman Handicaps?
It’s October, meaning enough of portion of the college football season has been played so that experts like me can start making undeniably accurate Heisman Trophy predictions. The Heisman Trophy of course is the most important award in the world—more important than the Nobel Prizes, Emmy’s, and MTV Movie Awards combined; that’s why articles about which players are in the Heisman running circulate starting from the day after the last Heisman winner was announced to the day of the next Heisman Trophy presentation to moments before the rapture. But don’t worry about any other so-called “expert” predictions on the Heisman because mine is the holy grail of Heisman columns due to the minutes of meticulous research I put into it.
For those of you who don’t know how odds work, allow me to illustrate with the following example: Let’s say California running back Marshawn Lynch was going at 50-1 odds to win the Heisman before the start of the season. Theoretically that means if you bet one dollar on Lynch and he wins the Heisman, you win 50 dollars. Realistically it means if you bet one dollar on Lynch, you lost one dollar.
Anyways, let’s take a look at the Heisman race in order of decreasing chance to win beginning with…
1. Troy Smith, QB Ohio State (odds: 5-1)—Smith is the Quarterback for the nation’s No.1 team and has been effective thus far in leading the Buckeyes to victories over ranked opponents Texas and Iowa. Those are two big plusses for Smith and with that amazing touchdown pass while-scrambling-from-defenders play against Penn State, he now has the ooh-la-la moment that sticks in the minds of Heisman voters the ala Reggie Bush’s cutback-inside-from-the-sidelines play last season against Fresno State. But what will really seal the deal for Troy Smith is if Ohio State boosters give Smith’s family a house, thus sending the voters a message by conferring Heisman preferential status identical to what Bush got at USC.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma (odds: 7-1)—Peterson has been absolutely amazing this season, averaging 160.8 yards per game. But if he doesn’t win, I’m sure Oklahoma President David Boren will just ask the NCAA to wipe this year’s Heisman selection off the record books
3. Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame (odds: 10-1)—Brady Quinn’s Heisman hopes have taken a hit since the Michigan debacle but, using four degrees of separation, I think I can still explain why Quinn should win the trophy: 1) Quinn’s head coach is Charlie Weiss 2) Weiss coached Tom Brady as offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots 3) Tom Brady has 3 Super Bowl rings 4) Tom Brady and Brady Quinn both share the name “Brady.” There you go; I just proved that Brady Quinn is equivalent to an NFL Quarterback who has won 3 Super Bowls. How can you not choose him for the Award now?
4. Garret Wolfe, RB Northen Illinois (odds : 20-1)—Wolfe is on pace to break the single-season rushing record and can brag that he put up 171 yards on the ground against the vaunted Ohio State defense. What may hurt Wolfe is the fact he plays in the defensively-challenged Mid-American Conference, but what will hurt Wolfe even more is that he is way behind in touchdown passes to Troy Smith and Brady Quinn.
5. John David Booty, QB Southern Cal (odds: 25-1)—Heisman voters might be reluctant to select Booty since USC has already won 3 of the last 4 Heisman Trophies, but I think I speak for everyone when I say it’d be great to see the following sports headline: “Heisman Awarded to Booty.”
6. Chris Leak, QB Florida (odds: 80-1)—Based on past results, Leak has all 3 requirements for a Heisman winner: 1) he’s a Quarterback 2) He’s a Senior 3) He plays for a big name school. But I’ve heard that the Heisman race is also a popularity contest so Gator fans had better stop booing Leak lest they make voters think Leak isn’t cool enough to win the Heisman.
7. Brian Brohm, QB Louisville (odds: 150-1)—Running Back Michael Bush’s season-ending injury might actually help Brohm’s candidacy because he has to carry the Cardinal’s offense without benefit of a running game. Too bad Brohm is now injured too and won’t be back until the West Virginia game. But Brohm can still help his team win by convincing opponents before the game to stomp on the Cardinals logo at midfield.
8. Tedd Ginn, Jr. WR Ohio State (odds: 250-1)—With just 337 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns, Ginn doesn’t own Heisman-quality numbers. But the Buckeyes. have always ran a conservative offense under Jim Tressel so we must inflate Ginn’s numbers to account for the play-calling. By my calculations, Tedd Ginn would then have 2,050 yards receiving and 35 touchdowns; now those are Heisman-quality stats
9. Drew Weatherford, QB Florida State (odds: 400-1)—Many people will ask why Weatherford is even a candidate considering he is only starting his second season and hasn’t been really all that good; but don’t ask me, ask Florida State fans. After enduring four years of Chris Rix, any Quarterback would be considered a Heisman candidate to Seminole Nation.
10. Sidney Rice, WR South Carolina (odds: 500-1)—The Gamecocks’ star receiver was recently named SEC Offensive Player of the Week for catching 5 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic, a feat made all the more impressive because of FAU’s record-breaking defense. Don’t believe me? The Owls defense gave up 54, 45, 48, and 45 points in their first four games respectively. Tell me they’re not breaking some sort of record here.
11. Kyle Davisson, WR Clemson (odds: 6,000,000,000-1)—You probably have never heard of Kyle Davisson and it’s totally understandable since he’s a scout team Wide Receiver whose only playing time this year came in the waning moments of Clemson’s 51-0 blasting of Louisiana Tech. But check out the odds!!!!!! Sure I made them up and sure Kyle Davisson has absolutely no chance of winning the Heisman this or any other year, but you have to think of this in terms of risk versus rewards. The risk (100%) is that you will lose only one dollar but the potential payoff (0%) is that you could earn a return of 6 billion dollars!!!!!!!!!!!!! So disregard all common sense and bet on Kyle Davisson while the odds are still this good. Feel free to send your dollar bets to me at my Clemson mailbox.
For those of you who don’t know how odds work, allow me to illustrate with the following example: Let’s say California running back Marshawn Lynch was going at 50-1 odds to win the Heisman before the start of the season. Theoretically that means if you bet one dollar on Lynch and he wins the Heisman, you win 50 dollars. Realistically it means if you bet one dollar on Lynch, you lost one dollar.
Anyways, let’s take a look at the Heisman race in order of decreasing chance to win beginning with…
1. Troy Smith, QB Ohio State (odds: 5-1)—Smith is the Quarterback for the nation’s No.1 team and has been effective thus far in leading the Buckeyes to victories over ranked opponents Texas and Iowa. Those are two big plusses for Smith and with that amazing touchdown pass while-scrambling-from-defenders play against Penn State, he now has the ooh-la-la moment that sticks in the minds of Heisman voters the ala Reggie Bush’s cutback-inside-from-the-sidelines play last season against Fresno State. But what will really seal the deal for Troy Smith is if Ohio State boosters give Smith’s family a house, thus sending the voters a message by conferring Heisman preferential status identical to what Bush got at USC.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB Oklahoma (odds: 7-1)—Peterson has been absolutely amazing this season, averaging 160.8 yards per game. But if he doesn’t win, I’m sure Oklahoma President David Boren will just ask the NCAA to wipe this year’s Heisman selection off the record books
3. Brady Quinn, QB Notre Dame (odds: 10-1)—Brady Quinn’s Heisman hopes have taken a hit since the Michigan debacle but, using four degrees of separation, I think I can still explain why Quinn should win the trophy: 1) Quinn’s head coach is Charlie Weiss 2) Weiss coached Tom Brady as offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots 3) Tom Brady has 3 Super Bowl rings 4) Tom Brady and Brady Quinn both share the name “Brady.” There you go; I just proved that Brady Quinn is equivalent to an NFL Quarterback who has won 3 Super Bowls. How can you not choose him for the Award now?
4. Garret Wolfe, RB Northen Illinois (odds : 20-1)—Wolfe is on pace to break the single-season rushing record and can brag that he put up 171 yards on the ground against the vaunted Ohio State defense. What may hurt Wolfe is the fact he plays in the defensively-challenged Mid-American Conference, but what will hurt Wolfe even more is that he is way behind in touchdown passes to Troy Smith and Brady Quinn.
5. John David Booty, QB Southern Cal (odds: 25-1)—Heisman voters might be reluctant to select Booty since USC has already won 3 of the last 4 Heisman Trophies, but I think I speak for everyone when I say it’d be great to see the following sports headline: “Heisman Awarded to Booty.”
6. Chris Leak, QB Florida (odds: 80-1)—Based on past results, Leak has all 3 requirements for a Heisman winner: 1) he’s a Quarterback 2) He’s a Senior 3) He plays for a big name school. But I’ve heard that the Heisman race is also a popularity contest so Gator fans had better stop booing Leak lest they make voters think Leak isn’t cool enough to win the Heisman.
7. Brian Brohm, QB Louisville (odds: 150-1)—Running Back Michael Bush’s season-ending injury might actually help Brohm’s candidacy because he has to carry the Cardinal’s offense without benefit of a running game. Too bad Brohm is now injured too and won’t be back until the West Virginia game. But Brohm can still help his team win by convincing opponents before the game to stomp on the Cardinals logo at midfield.
8. Tedd Ginn, Jr. WR Ohio State (odds: 250-1)—With just 337 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns, Ginn doesn’t own Heisman-quality numbers. But the Buckeyes. have always ran a conservative offense under Jim Tressel so we must inflate Ginn’s numbers to account for the play-calling. By my calculations, Tedd Ginn would then have 2,050 yards receiving and 35 touchdowns; now those are Heisman-quality stats
9. Drew Weatherford, QB Florida State (odds: 400-1)—Many people will ask why Weatherford is even a candidate considering he is only starting his second season and hasn’t been really all that good; but don’t ask me, ask Florida State fans. After enduring four years of Chris Rix, any Quarterback would be considered a Heisman candidate to Seminole Nation.
10. Sidney Rice, WR South Carolina (odds: 500-1)—The Gamecocks’ star receiver was recently named SEC Offensive Player of the Week for catching 5 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic, a feat made all the more impressive because of FAU’s record-breaking defense. Don’t believe me? The Owls defense gave up 54, 45, 48, and 45 points in their first four games respectively. Tell me they’re not breaking some sort of record here.
11. Kyle Davisson, WR Clemson (odds: 6,000,000,000-1)—You probably have never heard of Kyle Davisson and it’s totally understandable since he’s a scout team Wide Receiver whose only playing time this year came in the waning moments of Clemson’s 51-0 blasting of Louisiana Tech. But check out the odds!!!!!! Sure I made them up and sure Kyle Davisson has absolutely no chance of winning the Heisman this or any other year, but you have to think of this in terms of risk versus rewards. The risk (100%) is that you will lose only one dollar but the potential payoff (0%) is that you could earn a return of 6 billion dollars!!!!!!!!!!!!! So disregard all common sense and bet on Kyle Davisson while the odds are still this good. Feel free to send your dollar bets to me at my Clemson mailbox.
posted by James Li at
9:56 AM
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